Third front will play spoilsport

CHENNAI: It is not just about the DMK and the AIADMK in the coming elections. Many small, caste-based parties that have entered the fray by forging an apology for a third front, could play spoilsport with the fortunes of both the major fronts.

The BJP and the BSP have also fielded candidates in a sizeable number of segments. All these parties will split votes and eat into the margins of the winning candidates. The third front alone could wreak havoc in at least 50 segments across the state.

In 2006 polls, the winning margin was less than 1,000 votes in 16 segments and less than 2,000 votes in 27 constituencies out of the total 234 segments.

Even deputy chief minister MK Stalin is not totally safe in Kolathur constituency because of BSP state president K Armstrong's presence there. Armstrong could poll at least 5,000 votes in that segment. The BSP is contesting in more than 100 seats in Tamil Nadu.

Educationist-turned-politician TR Pachamuthu's party Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK)

leads the third front. It comprises Tamilaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam of John Pandian, Samooka Samathuva Padai of retired IAS officer, P Sivakami, Tamil Nadu Vanigar Peravai and VOC Peravai. The front is fielding candidates in more than 150 constituencies.

Political observers feel that the IJK could poll 3,000 to 5,000 votes in many constituencies in Cuddalore, Villupuram, Perambalur, Ariyalur and Selam districts where Pachamuthu's Udayar community has sizeable presence. The Samooka Samathuva Padai will mobilize significant dalit votes in constituencies like Tindivanam, Krishnarayapuram, Haroor and Gangavalli. Sivakami herself is contesting from Gangavalli.

Sivakami said, "Our front - Indiya Jananayaka Munnani will play a crucial role in considerable number of constituencies. We will split votes and it will affect many serious contenders."

John Pandian has some influence in Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Dindigul and Tirunelveli districts.

Kerala-based Social Democratic Party of India has also plunged into the Tamil Nadu election fray with a view to garnering Muslim votes. They are concentrating on Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram and some parts of Chennai.

The BJP has fielded 190 candidates so far. Subramaniam Swamy's Janata Party, its ally, is contesting in 10 segments. Though the BJP does not have a strong base in most districts, it has a few thousand votes in each of the 234 segments.

Actor Karthik who was initially supposed to join hands with the AIADMK, had walked out due to differences in seat sharing. His party ANMK which has sizeable Thevar votes in southern Tamil Nadu, has fielded candidates in thirty seats. He could eat more into the AIADMK votebank. In 2006, former AIADMK minister Nainar Nagendran lost by 2,000 votes in Tirunelveli, where Karthik's party polled more than the margin. Karthik said, "We will prove before the AIADMK what our strength is."

Similarly an Arundhathiar (a section of dalits) outfit headed by R Adhiyaman has fielded candidates in 20 segments in western Tamil Nadu.

MDMK voters are also going to play a vital role in many southern and western constituencies. Whom they will support is anybody's guess.